WTA MADRID OPEN 2024: ROUND 2
MARIA SAKKARI VS. DONNA VEKIC
Round 2 of the Madrid Open features a matchup between Maria Sakkari and Donna Vekic. Interested in other names to look out for this tournament? Check our quick preview article.
Date: Thursday, April 25, 2024
Approx. Time: 5:00AM ET / 2:00AM PT
This will be the 10th match played between the two players, so there could be some familiarity with each other’s game. However, this will be the first match against each other on clay. Vekic leads the H2H with 6 wins and 3 losses vs. Sakkari. They split their 2 matches last year and have both been active to start the year in 2024.
SURGING MARIA SAKKARI
The Greek had a miserable start to the year, not even making a quarterfinal appearance in the first five tournaments of the season. This resulted in her dropping her long-time coach Tom Hill. She formed a new partnership with David Witt, who coached Jessica Pegula up to one of the top players on tour, after a surprising split this year. Witt, a calmer presence, has been able to tame Maria’s mental which has been the downfall of many matches over the course of many years. The pair made a deep run at Indian Wells this year, where she was overwhelmed by world #1 Iga Swiatek in the finals.
It’ll be fun to continue and watch this duo and see how Maria’s game develops as the world #6 continues to push back up the leaderboard. Up next is the European clay season, which isn’t Sakkari’s strong suit. She has a respectable 5-2 record this year on clay (including Billie Jean King Cup), with her only tournament loss being one of the hottest women on tour this year, Danielle Collins, in the semi-finals of Charleston. Sakkari won’t be a threat to win the tournament in Iga’s side of the bracket, but she should have the ability to win a few rounds.
COLLAPSING DONNA VEKIC
On the opposite side of the court, the Croatian, Vekic, has had a very slow start to the year. At just 10-8 on the year, and rank #38, she finds herself with a tough matchup right out the gate. While Donna has never been among the top ranks (peak rank #19 in 2019), she is no push over and a threat to anyone on any given day. Clay is also not her strong suit, ending the year last year with a negative record of 4-5.
Vekic easily defeated Laura Siegemund in Round 1 today by a score of 6-1 6-2. While Siegemund is largely just an ITF challenger, clay is her main surface. So this should be a confidence builder for Donna who can try to roll the momentum into Thursday.
MARIA SAKKARI VS. DONNA VEKIC PREDICTIONS AND BEST BETS
Our analysis has Maria Sakkari winning this match a comfortable percentage of the time. However, most books have her priced around -225 to -250, giving us little to no value on her moneyline.
Looking at the H2H, and given Vekic’s round 1 success, we think there’s a good chance that this match goes the distance, or at least one deep/competitive set as the ladies try to figure each other out.
Best Bet: Total Games OVER 20.5 (-136 FanDuel)
I personally am bias against the 21.5 number, as someone who’s lost MANY bets to the hook on a 7-5 6-3 score line. I would bet up to 1 unit on this match.